基于人工神经网络理论的建筑物火灾安全评价研究

依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素,应用人工神经网络理论及系统安全方法,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系,该方法摆脱了评价过程中的随机性和参评人员主观上的不确定性及其认识上的模糊性等缺点,大大提高了准确性。为了验证评价模型的准确性,将该理论应用到某高校图书馆火灾危险性评价中,快速、准确地得到了安全评价结果,取得了满意效果,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

航空维修人为差错影响因素分析中的模糊层次分析法

航空维修中的人为差错影响因素分析对于预防事故发生至关重要,如何定量分析及辨识出主要影响因素是亟待解决的问题。为此,结合航空维修实际,提出运用群组模糊层次分析法对人为差错影响因素进行量化排序和分类,归纳细化了影响因素层次体系,并给出了分析计算流程。以一起由维修人为差错所引发的航空事故为例进行了实证分析,结果表明:该方法能够辨识出航空维修中人为差错产生的主要影响因素,进而对制订最优事故预防方案,控制和减少该类事故的发生有积极意义。同时该方法对其他行业中的人为差错主要影响因素辨识有着一定的参考价值。     

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

The impact of team familiarity and team leader experience on team coordination errors: A panel analysis of professional basketball teams

To explore the dynamics involved in team coordination, we examine the impact of team familiarity and team leader experience on team coordination errors (TCEs). We argue that team familiarity has a U‐shaped effect on TCEs. We study the moderating effects of team leader prior experience and team leader team‐specific experience on the association between team familiarity and TCEs. We use panel data on teams from the National Basketball Association to test the hypotheses. Our findings support the U‐shaped relationship between team familiarity and TCEs and the moderating effect of team leader team‐specific experience on this relationship. The paper advances research on errors in organizations by analyzing the antecedents of TCEs, so far an underexplored empirical phenomenon. Moreover, it contributes to research on coordination in teams by empirically examining the interplay between formal and informal coordination mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于改进的HFACS和SPA的矿山安全人因分析

为了更好地服务于矿山安全管理,同时解决矿山人为因素调查、分析和评价方面存在的缺失,对部分矿山事故进行了统计分析,研究了诱发事故发生的人因因素,并分析了各因素发生的原因。在此基础上,结合对部分矿山安全管理现状的研究,建立了矿山HFACS分析模型。该模型包括5类事故致因、24个人因因素。应用该模型,结合集对分析方法,可实现矿山人因因素定量与定性分析。以陕西省某矿山为例,建立了该矿山的HFACS模型。采用专家评分法、层次分析法确定各因素的权重,计算出系统的联系度表达式。利用该表达式对该矿山的集对势、联系度、不确定性和悲观势进行了分析。结果表明,该矿山人因安全状况良好,个别人因因素指标需要改善和提高。矿山HFACS模型可以很好地涵盖矿山事故中的人因因素,通过对矿山人因现状的集对分析,可以有效提高矿山安全性。     

高寒条件下振弦式传感器在线测量尾矿坝浸润线的误差分析及对策

为减少和消除高寒条件下振弦式传感器在线测量浸润线的误差,通过理论分析和现场试验,对造成误差的因素及其影响情况进行了深入研究。结果表明,振弦式传感器产生测量误差的主要来源为设备安装深度的测量误差与尾矿水密度及重力加速度的取值误差,并提出了减少或消除误差的方法和工程技术措施,为高寒地区的浸润线在线精确测量提供了重要指导意义。     

页岩气压裂作业人因失误结构化辨识方法研究

为提高页岩气压裂作业人因失误辨识结果的全面性和针对性,建立一种结构化的人因失误辨识方法。通过概括辨识阶段的作业流程,建立作业人员行为模型,概述作业人员的行为阶段。利用筛选出的引导词辨识行为阶段人因失误。将该方法应用于页岩气压裂过程的替液阶段。结果表明,用引导词能明确辨识方向,减少头脑风暴时间以及对专家知识的依赖;辨识过程的动态调整能改善认知可靠性,使更多人因失误模式(与传统CREAM方法相比)被辨识出来。     

年轻地下水定年研究综述

将环境示踪技术用于地下水定年以确定地下水的相关时间尺度问题在过去几十年中得到了长足发展,尤其是在年轻地下水定年方面。目前国内外用到的年轻地下水环境示踪剂有多种,这些示踪剂在地下水定年方面各有利弊。本文的目的是对国内外现有的9种年轻地下水示踪剂(3 H、3 H/3 He、4 He、35S、36 Cl/Cl、85 Kr、222 Rn、CFCs和SF6)的来源、示踪原理、误差来源、优缺点、适用性和应用现状等进行归纳和总结,为研究者、管理者和决策者在应用时提供参考。     

Water quality modelling of the river Yamuna (India) using QUAL2E-UNCAS

This paper describes the utility of QUAL2E as a modelling package in the evaluation of a water quality improvement programme. In this study, QUAL2E was applied to determine the pollution loads in the river Yamuna during its course through the national capital territory of Delhi, India. The study aimed at examining the influence of different scenarios on river water quality. Four different pollution scenarios were analysed besides the 'business as usual' situation. The study revealed that it was necessary to treat the discharge from drains to the river Yamuna and diversion of a substantial load to the Agra canal for further treatment was also essential. It was also established through this study that maintaining a flow rate of more than 10 m(3)/s in the river could also help preserve the river's water quality. To clearly display the model outcomes and demarcate polluted zones in the river stretch, model results were interfaced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to produce cartographic outputs. In addition, uncertainty analysis in the form of first-order error analysis and Monte Carlo analysis was performed, to realise the effect of each model parameter on DO and BOD predictions. The uncertainty analysis gave satisfactory results on simulated data.     

贵州梵净山九龙池沉积物14C年代学研究及全新世碳累积速率变化

放射性碳同位素加速器质谱（ASM¹⁴C）测年法是湖泊沉积物定年的主要方法,并且是全新世年代学研究的热点。随着对全新世古气候与环境变化研究的深入,选取不同介质定年可能对年代模型的准确性造成误差,进而影响到气候指标的解译。本文选取贵州东北部梵净山九龙池沉积物中树枝、树叶、树皮、种子等植物残体和全样有机质作为测年介质,利用ASM¹⁴C进行定年。结果表明,相比全样有机质,使用植物残体定年可以在一定程度上避免碳库效应的影响。但相比于原位沉积且生长年限较短的叶片,树枝的定年结果偏老,不是一种理想的定年介质。另外,根据定年结果及总有机碳含量重建了全新世九龙池的碳累积速率,发现碳累积速率可以指示该地区亚洲夏季风强度的变化历史。